Ian Shepherdson Quotes

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent. - Ian Shepherdson

We expect a drop to 390,000 [next week], but an even lower number cannot be ruled out. - Ian Shepherdson

We expect a couple of very rough months for consumers spending. - Ian Shepherdson

We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims. - Ian Shepherdson

We doubt this can be sustained as the reality of $2.60- plus sinks in. For now, though, it looks good. - Ian Shepherdson

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22. - Ian Shepherdson

We doubt [the] October data will be that strong, but it will not be long. The final element of the recovery is falling into place. - Ian Shepherdson

We believed the underlying level of claims peaked in the spring. This suggests that they may now genuinely have begun to decline. - Ian Shepherdson

We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works. - Ian Shepherdson

Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet. - Ian Shepherdson

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