Ian Shepherdson Quotes
Ignore the ISM at your peril... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer. 
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Things will likely get worse before they get better.
- Ian Shepherdson
The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7% year over year, down from May's 2.8% peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.
- Ian Shepherdson
The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.
- Ian Shepherdson