David Orr Quotes

(Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan thinks consumer confidence is important, and if he thinks so I guess we should think so.

- David Orr

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Chairman | Alan | Greenspan | Thinks | Consumer |

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In our view, current financial market psychology is under-estimating the negative impact that rising joblessness will have on the housing and motor vehicle markets in the first half of 2002. - David Orr

Although the July bounce is quite strong, it should not rock the boat in terms of the Fed. An annual rate [of retail sales increase] of 5 percent to 6 percent could, in fact, be considered the definition of a soft landing. - David Orr

My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, ... A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent. If unemployment goes up a half percentage point from its trough, you almost always get a recession subsequently in the next 12 months. There is a snowballing effect that begins to happen once you get too much past that size increase. While it might take a nice round 5.0 percent rate before people get panicked, the snow may already be rolling over them by then. - David Orr